2026 El Niño Phenomenon Already Marks Four Provinces with June Deadline

The likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon developing in 2026 is increasing, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reporting an 80% probability of its occurrence between June and August. Projections suggest the event could persist until November with over 90% certainty. While the intensity remains uncertain, most forecast models indicate it will be at least moderate, and possibly intense.

Ecuador's National Secretariat for Risk Management has identified Guayas, Los Ríos, El Oro, and Loja as priority provinces due to their high vulnerability to floods and landslides. These areas will receive concentrated resources and monitoring, although all 17 provinces, 143 cantons, and 491 parishes under a yellow alert remain under attention. The potential coincidence of El Niño with the rainy season could exacerbate impacts in these vulnerable regions.

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The probabilities of the 2026 El Niño phenomenon extending until November are around or exceed 90%.

The National Committee for the Study and Regional Forecast of the El Niño Phenomenon (Erfen) reported on June 5 that El Niño is in an initial development phase in the equatorial Pacific. The Technical Committee of the Emergency Operations Committee (COE) meets every 15 days to monitor El Niño's progress. Currently, the phenomenon is in an observational state.

Local governments have been given a deadline of June 23 by the COE to present their prevention and action plans. These plans must include risk and vulnerability assessments, local action strategies, identification of vulnerable groups, and the status of critical infrastructure like schools and health centers. However, risk management officials in municipalities like Celica and Babahoyo express concerns about insufficient time, budget, personnel, and machinery to be fully prepared for the rainy season.

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time, budget, personnel, and machinery are not enough to be ready for the rainy season.