80% chance of El Nino forming between June and August, warns World Meteorological Organisation

The world must prepare for the imminent arrival of El Niño, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issuing a stark warning of an 80% probability for its formation between June and August. This climate phenomenon, characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is poised to disrupt global weather patterns and exacerbate extreme weather events.

El Niño typically lasts between nine and 12 months and has a significant impact on rainfall and temperature worldwide. For India, the implications are particularly concerning, as the event is strongly associated with a weaker monsoon and more severe summer conditions. The WMO's update suggests that the developing El Niño could range from moderate to strong, raising alarm bells in a country already anticipating a weak monsoon.

According to the WMO's seasonal forecast issued on April 30, rainfall is expected to be below normal across much of South Asia, with a pronounced impact on central India during the June-September southwest monsoon. This forecast is based on a consensus of global climate models and expert analysis. UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgency, stating, "The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is."

Guterres further urged decisive climate action, including an end to fossil fuel dependence, a rapid shift to renewable energy, and the protection of vulnerable populations, alongside the implementation of early warning systems for all. The WMO's updates are a collaborative effort, drawing on data from global producing centers, national meteorological services, and climate prediction centers worldwide, highlighting the interconnectedness of global climate monitoring and response.

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The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.