80% of Australia's Tobacco and Vapes Last Year Were Illegal, Statistics Bureau Estimates

The vast majority of tobacco and vaping products consumed in Australia last year were illegal, with the Bureau of Statistics estimating the figure at 80%. This surge in illicit products has occurred alongside a nearly 40% increase in nicotine consumption between 2017 and 2025. Meanwhile, household spending on legal tobacco products has plummeted during the same period.

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The increase was underpinned by a large rise in illicit cigarettes as well as increases in e-cigarettes and other nicotine products.

The Bureau of Statistics analysis attributes the rise in consumption to a significant increase in illicit cigarettes and other nicotine products. The share of total tobacco consumed from illicit sources jumped from 12% in 2017 to 80% in 2025. These estimates are based on nicotine metabolite concentrations in wastewater samples and data on declining spending on legal products.

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Consumption from illicit sources, as a share of total tobacco consumed, rose from 12 per cent in 2017 to 80 per cent in 2025.

Criminologist James Martin described the findings as "staggering" and a "massive policy failure." He argued that Australia's high excise taxes, which have nearly tripled the price of legal tobacco since 2016, are the primary driver of the black market. The tax alone accounts for more than 80% of the cost of a single cigarette stick, pushing a pack of 25 well over $50.

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These numbers put it in the most stark terms possible.

Illicit cigarettes are now selling for around $25 per pack and are being imported in large quantities, primarily from Asia and the Middle East. Critics contend that this black market is robbing the federal budget of billions of dollars and forcing legitimate retailers out of business. The federal Treasury has already downgraded projected tobacco excise revenue by $8 billion over the next five years.

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This is a massive policy failure and requires a radical rethink.