"A climate risk Sweden cannot ignore"

Sweden must recognize a potential drastic slowdown or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a strategic risk demanding present-day attention and action, according to Wendy Broadgate and Johan Rockström. They argue that this threat, while escalating silently, is largely absent from political discourse despite its potentially catastrophic consequences for Sweden.

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Sweden should consider a drastic slowdown or even collapse of the ocean current system Amoc as a strategic risk that requires attention and action already today.

The AMOC, a major system of ocean currents, plays a critical role in regulating Europe's climate. It transports warm, salty water from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, releasing heat and creating a milder climate for Sweden and Northern Europe compared to other regions at similar latitudes. As this water cools, it becomes denser, sinks, and flows southward, completing a cycle that influences climate, precipitation, sea levels, and marine ecosystems. However, increasing global temperatures, precipitation, and melting ice due to emissions are causing this system to slow down.

While the UN's climate panel (IPCC) previously assessed an AMOC collapse as unlikely before 2100, recent research suggests a significantly higher risk. Broadgate and Rockström conservatively estimate a 10% or greater probability of a drastic slowdown or collapse, based on new climate analyses using IPCC data. They stress that even a 10% chance is unacceptable given the catastrophic potential consequences.

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The probability of a drastic slowdown or even collapse is conservatively assessed by us at 10 percent or more.

Such an event would expose Sweden to extremely cold winters, shortened growing seasons, intensified winter storms, and increased ice cover, all while the rest of the world continues to warm. This would devastate agriculture, fishing, and food supply chains. Furthermore, water power, transportation, energy systems, and the overall economy would suffer severe blows, drastically increasing vulnerability to geopolitical and economic crises. The authors assert that Sweden, with its world-class researchers and reputable institutions, is well-positioned to lead efforts in mitigating this risk, rather than waiting for other nations to act.

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With an extensive slowdown of Amoc, Sweden would be hit by extremely cold winters, shorter growing seasons, stronger winter storms, expanded ice cover, while most of the rest of the world continues to warm.