A year ago, Israel shifted from intentions to capabilities in Operation Rising Lion - opinion

Operation "Rising Lion," launched on June 13, 2025, represents a pivotal moment that is expected to reshape Israeli security doctrine for generations. The operation's core lesson is that national security must be based on preventing capabilities, not solely on assessing intentions, a principle learned from historical events.

For years, the debate surrounding Iran centered on its intentions: whether it truly sought Israel's destruction, the rationality of its leadership, or the effectiveness of deterrence. However, "Rising Lion" underscored that intentions can shift rapidly with changing leaders or political circumstances. A state possessing advanced capabilities, such as ballistic missiles and a vast drone arsenal, remains dangerous regardless of perceived immediate intentions.

This lesson echoes historical precedents. In the 1930s, some argued Nazi Germany only sought to correct post-World War I injustices. In 1967, focus on Egyptian President Nasser's intentions overshadowed the reality of military capabilities. Similarly, on October 7, 2023, Israel suffered greatly from a conception that prioritized intentions over the capabilities of Hamas, which possessed a large terror army and extensive rocket arsenal.

"Rising Lion" signifies a profound strategic shift by acting preemptively to deny Iran capabilities, particularly its nuclear program, rather than waiting for it to cross a threshold. The operation targeted nuclear facilities, missile sites, command centers, and key figures within Iran's security establishment, showcasing the advanced intelligence and operational capabilities of Israel's security agencies.