AfD activist tells Večernji list: I love Croatia, but you have no place in this area

Germany stood on the brink of a political rupture as the far-right Alternative for Germany aimed for 45 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, a result that could overturn the state’s established political order.

The AfD’s state branch has been officially classified as a right-wing extremist organisation by the domestic intelligence service. Yet polling before voting ended put it far ahead of the centre-right CDU. The AfD was projected to receive about 41.5 percent, compared with 22.5 percent for the CDU, 12 percent for the Left, 8 percent for the Social Democratic Party and 5.8 percent for the Greens. The liberal FDP and the BSW protest party were below the threshold in the polls.

The outcome could determine whether the AfD wins an absolute majority or only becomes the largest party. If it falls short, the CDU and the other parties could try to form an anti-AfD coalition and keep state premier Sven Schulze in office. In that scenario, AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund could emerge as the relative winner without taking power.

The stakes extend beyond the state. The CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt with different partners since 2002, and a major AfD breakthrough could shake Germany’s political scene and test the stability of the federal government led by the unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Turnout reached 34.7 percent by noon, compared with 22.4 percent at the same point in 2021, and 54.4 percent by 2 p.m., versus 27.1 percent in 2021.

AfD voters interviewed in Magdeburg saw the high turnout as evidence of their mobilisation. The CDU urged supporters not to rely on opinion polls and campaigned on the message that every vote for the party and for democracy mattered. Siegmund said after voting that he expected support from more than 45 percent. The AfD won 20.8 percent in 2021, and a result above 40 percent would represent one of the largest gains by any German party between election cycles since World War II.