AfD Extends Lead in Saxony-Anhalt Polls; BSW Emerges as Potential Power Broker

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is strengthening its position just one month before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by the Insa polling institute for the newspaper "Bild," shows the AfD leading with 42% of voter support. This places the party a significant 20 percentage points ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is polling at 22%.

This latest poll indicates a further decline for the CDU, led by Minister-President Sven Schulze. A previous poll from Infratest dimap at the end of July had placed the AfD at 41% and the CDU at 24%. The results suggest the AfD is on track to be the strongest political force in the next state parliament.

Of particular interest is the potential performance of parties vying to cross the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation. The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is projected to enter the state parliament with 5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Left (Die Linke) are both predicted to fall short, with 4% each.

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Only if the BSW enters the state parliament can the next term of office for the CDU Minister-President be prevented. The AfD alone will not manage it.

The potential entry of the BSW could play a crucial role in determining the next Minister-President. With the AfD at 41% and the CDU, The Left, and SPD combined falling short, the AfD could theoretically elect its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, in a third ballot if the BSW abstains. However, BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht has stated that her party's votes will not go to the CDU's Sven Schulze, suggesting the BSW could be a decisive factor in preventing his re-election.

BSW candidate Thomas Schulze envisions a model of shifting majorities and an "over-party" Minister-President to reduce political polarization. The party has also called for the abolition of the so-called "firewall" against the AfD, indicating openness to cooperation on specific policy areas like education, healthcare, energy, and security.

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Only with the BSW can there be majorities for a different policy in parliament.