AfD is surging, but Germany’s mainstream parties can still stop it

The Alternative for Germany’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where it won 44% of the vote and 39 of the state legislature’s 83 seats, marks a dramatic moment for Germany. The party fell short of a majority, but not by enough to remove the immediate threat.

The small populist BSW party has indicated that it might enable the election of an AfD head of government. That would give an extreme-right party executive power in a German state for the first time since World War II.

The election has deeply unsettled the country. It represents the culmination of a decade-long shift that transformed the AfD from a marginal protest party into a major political force. Mainstream parties suffered a severe blow, but they still have an opportunity to reverse the trend if those in power are prepared to act decisively.

The first task is to understand the voters the AfD has attracted. Recent surveys conducted by d|part, the think tank I co-lead, found that people in Saxony-Anhalt were much more likely than the national average to say that job prospects, education, health care and their social environment were worsening. The gap between demands for better economic opportunities and public services and what government has delivered has created anger that the AfD has exploited.

The party’s proposed policies could worsen the state’s socioeconomic problems, yet many voters no longer see a credible alternative. Roughly three-quarters of AfD voters surveyed said they did not consider any other party viable. By contrast, more than half of supporters of other parties could name at least one alternative they would consider.

Many committed AfD voters firmly support the party’s extreme-right and racist positions. Over the past decade, the balance has shifted from people voting for the AfD despite those positions to people voting for it because of them. Those hardline voters are not reachable in the short term. But the quarter of AfD supporters who remain open to other parties could be persuaded. Most do not believe the AfD is the best party on issues such as the economy or the cost of living.

Mainstream parties should focus on that group after the Saxony-Anhalt election, particularly before elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern later this month. In the longer term, the mainstream needs a major overhaul of its political strategies.