AfD Leads Berlin Poll for First Time Ahead of State Election

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has taken the lead in a new poll for the upcoming Berlin state election, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. The survey, conducted by the Insa institute for the news portal "Nius," places the AfD at 19% support, a first for the party in the capital.

Closely trailing the AfD are the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Left party, both polling at 18%. The Greens are at 16%, and the Social Democrats (SPD) stand at 13%. Parties like the FDP and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would fall short of the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament, each garnering only 4% of the vote.

The poll of 1,000 Berlin residents was conducted between July 14 and 21, following the withdrawal of the incumbent mayor Kai Wegner as the CDU's top candidate. Stefan Evers, the current finance senator, has since taken over as the CDU's lead candidate. Election polls are inherently subject to uncertainties, with factors like declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions complicating their accuracy. This Insa poll contrasts with a separate representative survey by Infratest Dimap for public broadcaster RBB, released on July 16, which showed the Left party leading at 22%.