AfD nears Germany’s first far-right state victory since World War II as Saxony-Anhalt votes

The Alternative for Germany entered Saxony-Anhalt’s state election with a real chance to become the first far-right party to take power at state level in Germany since World War II. Its 35-year-old lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, had led the polls for months, and the party could even secure an outright majority if smaller parties fail to clear the 5% threshold.

About 1.7 million voters had until 6 p.m. to cast their ballots. Initial results were expected soon after polling stations closed, while election officials planned to release the first turnout estimates from midday. Recent surveys placed the AfD at slightly above 40%, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats on 23%.

The vote has become a test of Merz’s federal government. He has sought to weaken the AfD’s popularity by taking a harder line on migration and security. A strong AfD result would also intensify pressure on Germany’s longstanding firewall policy, under which mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with the far-right party.

An absolute majority would let the AfD avoid those efforts to keep it out of power. Such a result remains difficult under Germany’s proportional electoral system, which encourages coalition governments and makes it harder for one party to rule alone. If the AfD falls short, a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is considered the most likely outcome, although the final coalition would depend on which parties enter parliament. Negotiations could last for weeks.

Siegmund presented the vote as part of the AfD’s broader push for national power in the 2029 federal election. At a final rally on Saturday, he said, "No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history. Because what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt, that is currently sweeping across all of Germany, can no longer be stopped."

“

No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history. Because what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt, that is currently sweeping across all of Germany, can no longer be stopped.