AfD reaches its highest-ever level in a German state as Saxony-Anhalt election approaches

The AfD has reached 43 percent in a new Insa poll in Saxony-Anhalt, its strongest result ever recorded in any German state. In the NZZ election trend, which combines several polls, the party’s lead over the CDU is also larger than ever.

The Christian Democrats had long been the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt. That changed in late summer 2025, and the AfD has led the NZZ trend ever since. The CDU faces a more difficult starting position because popular former state premier Reiner Haseloff is not running again.

The AfD is entering the campaign with Ulrich Siegmund as its lead candidate. The party now has a realistic chance, for the first time in Germany, of winning the office of minister-president. The CDU has continuously supplied the state’s head of government since 2002. The SPD, BSW, Greens and FDP, meanwhile, risk falling below the 5 percent threshold.

Whether the AfD can win an absolute majority of seats depends partly on the smaller parties. The more parties that enter parliament, the harder it becomes for the AfD to secure a majority on its own. If it falls short, an AfD-led minority government tolerated by the BSW could be possible if the BSW enters parliament.

A majority without the AfD would also be difficult. The CDU rules out cooperation with both the AfD and the Left, and its incompatibility resolution excludes a coalition with the Left. A CDU-led minority government tolerated by the Left could be considered, as in Saxony. Voters most often identify migration, education and the economy as the state’s main problems, while unemployment also matters more than in many western German states. Migration remains the leading concern, although its importance has fallen sharply since the previous poll.