AfD wins big in Saxony-Anhalt, but potential coalition partner may miss threshold

The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, emerged as the largest party in elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, according to initial projections. Broadcasters ARD and ZDF put its support at between 44% and 44.5%, while an ARD exit poll gave it 44.5%.

The CDU, which has governed the eastern German state continuously since 2002, fell to 20.8% in the ARD exit poll. The party won 37.1% in 2021.

AfD’s huge lead does not yet show whether it can form a government. Because parties must win at least 5% of the vote to enter parliament, AfD could theoretically secure an outright majority in seats if enough smaller parties fall short. Initial projections, however, suggest that Die Linke, the Social Democrats and the Greens will all clear the threshold, with each receiving between 8% and 9.5%. That makes an AfD majority appear unlikely, although the final result could change.

Most parties have ruled out cooperation with AfD. The only exception is the left-nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, but its own parliamentary future remained uncertain. ARD’s projection placed BSW exactly at the required 5%, while ZDF’s exit poll put it just below the threshold.