After GERD, Can Egypt Shape Ethiopia’s Next Nile Dams?

Egypt is navigating Ethiopia's latest Nile dam initiatives through diplomatic channels and international appeals, a strategy shaped by the protracted disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo's approach prioritizes cooperation with Sudan and diplomatic pressure, rather than attempting to halt construction outright, acknowledging the limitations of its influence demonstrated by the GERD experience.

The potential development of three new hydropower projects on the Blue Nile, Karadobi, Mandaya, and Beko Abo, poses a significant test for Egypt's ability to translate over a decade of opposition into practical leverage. These projects have been under discussion for years, with academic studies identifying them as potential Blue Nile developments. Ethiopia's Water and Energy Ministry announced plans to advance these projects in March, months after the inauguration of the GERD, which proceeded despite Egypt's objections.

For Ethiopia, these dams are integral to its strategy for electricity generation, economic growth, and energy security, aiming to provide reliable power to millions. Professor Ezekiel Gebissa of Kettering University notes that the downstream impact on Egypt and Sudan will vary significantly based on the projects' scale and purpose. Smaller dams for local power might have minimal effects, while those linked to large-scale irrigation could have substantial implications. Factors such as reservoir size, filling schedules, and operating rules will be crucial in determining the consequences.

Egypt's primary concern stems from the Nile's critical role as its main freshwater source, making any upstream changes a matter of national security. Cairo's focus is not on Ethiopia's electricity generation but on how water storage and management, particularly during droughts, will affect its supply. Consequently, Egypt advocates for clear rules governing dam operations, drought management, water releases, and information sharing to safeguard its water security.

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Smaller dams could generate electricity for local communities without significantly reducing the volume of water reaching downstream countries, while projects linked to large-scale irrigation could have greater implications for Egypt and Sudan.