After Hormuz: Why Global Energy Can No Longer Rely on a Single Logistics Route

Some crises leave markets waiting for normality. Others change the rules under which markets operate. The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz belongs to the second category.

Under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Conflict sharply reduced supply volumes and forced market participants to seek alternative routes. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said the lost oil and gas volumes had already exceeded the combined losses recorded during the 1973 and 1979 oil crises.

Partial restoration of shipping did not restore the old system. In August 2026, about 10 million barrels of oil per day moved through the strait, approximately half the pre-war volume. The physical flow continued, but its reliability became dependent on forces beyond conventional supply and demand.

The crisis raises a broader question for the global energy system: can major transport corridors still be treated as permanently accessible? Any major importer depends not only on a supplier, but also on the route, infrastructure and surrounding political conditions. Energy security therefore increasingly depends on how many alternatives consumers have when a crisis begins.

Speaking at the eighth Russia-China Energy Business Forum on Sept. 4, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin called the Hormuz crisis a “moment of truth” for the global energy system. He said resilience must exist at several levels, beginning with reserves. China’s oil reserves are estimated at about 1.4 billion barrels, while Russia holds around 60 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, or 14% of global reserves. Russia has supplied more than 100 million tonnes of oil annually to China for four consecutive years. During the first seven months of 2026, it supplied 67 million tonnes, accounting for 23% of Chinese imports.

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Moment of truth