After state election win, researcher questions whether AfD will radicalize further

The AfD's record result in Saxony-Anhalt does not necessarily mean the party will continue moving further right, according to political researcher Jan Philipp Thomeczek. The party won 43.8% in Sunday's state election, but missed an absolute majority and must now seek support elsewhere if it wants to govern.

“The AfD has put itself in a position, with a very radicalized course, where it must meet expectations as the strongest force,” Thomeczek told Deutsche Presse-Agentur. “If it cannot fulfill them, the course of radicalization is more likely to fail.” AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund is seeking a stable majority and plans to hold talks with other parliamentary groups and individual lawmakers.

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The AfD has put itself in a position, with a very radicalized course, where it must meet expectations as the strongest force. If it cannot fulfill them, the course of radicalization is more likely to fail.

The AfD, which authorities for the protection of the constitution in Saxony-Anhalt classify as confirmed far-right extremist, wants to reshape parts of the state. Thomeczek, a researcher at the University of Potsdam, does not expect the party to achieve substantially higher results in future elections. He said the party may be reaching its mobilization limit at around 44% to 45% in a multiparty system with many relevant parties.

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One can assume that with 44% to 45%, the party is slowly fully mobilized. We have a multiparty system with many relevant parties.

He said the danger of further radicalization would be greatest if the AfD won an absolute majority and could implement its positions directly. That did not happen in Saxony-Anhalt. To take governmental responsibility, he said, the party would need to approach other parties, at least the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW.

Thomeczek sees little overlap for a permanent AfD-BSW coalition. Limited cooperation on individual measures remains possible, including the election of an AfD minister-president. He said the BSW's goal of finding a way to deal with the AfD outside the established firewall did not amount to a formal coalition. The AfD also aims to enter government after elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20, and in Brandenburg in 2029. It currently leads polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg.

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If the AfD cannot achieve that and there were new elections, I would not automatically assume that it would win more votes.