Afternoon Thunderstorms Expected Through Tuesday; Tropical Disturbance Development to be Monitored Over Next Week

Taiwan should prepare for significant afternoon thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from Monday through Tuesday. Before the rain arrives, the weather will be hot, necessitating precautions against sun exposure and heatstroke. Localized showers were reported in southern Taiwan early Monday morning, with low temperatures in plains areas around 23-24 degrees Celsius.

According to Wu Der-rong, an adjunct associate professor of atmospheric sciences at National Central University, a tropical disturbance is brewing and could impact weather patterns over the next week. Current forecasts indicate that a tropical cloud cluster may appear in the South China Sea before Tuesday. While development conditions are not ideal, it is expected to contribute to the southwesterly winds and moisture affecting Taiwan, increasing atmospheric instability and leading to consecutive days of afternoon thunderstorms.

Strong convective activity is anticipated to develop in mountainous areas from Monday to Tuesday, potentially spreading to some plains. Residents should be aware of the risks of lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden downpours. Temperatures are expected to range from 23-37 degrees Celsius across the island, depending on the region.

Looking ahead to Wednesday through Saturday, the Pacific high-pressure system is forecast to strengthen slightly, leading to more stable weather conditions. Skies are expected to be clear, with hot daytime temperatures. Afternoon showers will likely be limited to mountainous regions. However, the weather pattern from next Sunday to Tuesday remains uncertain and will depend on the development and trajectory of the tropical disturbance, requiring ongoing monitoring.

“

The latest European (ECMWF) model simulation shows that before Tuesday, there will be fluctuations in tropical clouds in the South China Sea. Although the development conditions are not good, it will play a role in providing southwesterly winds and water vapor near Taiwan, increasing atmospheric instability and bringing continuous afternoon thunderstorms.