Allies Fear Rushed US-Iran Deal Could Backfire, Leave Technical Deadlock

European diplomats are voicing serious reservations about the current US approach to negotiating a framework deal with Iran. There is a palpable fear that an eagerness for a swift, headline-grabbing agreement could lead to a superficial deal that entrenches deeper, more complex issues rather than resolving them. This concern stems from the perception that the US negotiating team, potentially lacking extensive experience with Tehran, might be pushing for expediency over thoroughness.

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The concern isn’t that there won’t be an agreement,” said a senior European diplomat, one of eight who spoke to Reuters who have previously worked on the nuclear file or continue to do so. "It's that there will be a bad initial agreement that creates endless downstream problems.”

The core worry among seasoned diplomats is not the absence of an agreement, but the potential for a flawed initial accord. Such an agreement, they warn, could create a cascade of downstream problems, leading to years of technically intricate follow-on talks. This perspective highlights a fundamental difference in approach: while the US may seek a broad outline, European nations emphasize the painstaking, decade-long process required to build a sustainable nuclear deal, as exemplified by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

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President Trump has a proven track record of achieving good deals on behalf of the United States and the American people, and he will only accept one that puts America first," spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.

This sentiment is particularly acute given the perceived sidelining of key European players like France, Britain, and Germany, who were instrumental in the original JCPOA negotiations. The current US administration's withdrawal from that deal in 2018, coupled with the rapid pace of current talks, raises questions about the long-term viability and substance of any new agreement. The White House, however, maintains a firm stance, asserting that President Trump's track record demonstrates his ability to secure deals that prioritize American interests, dismissing criticisms as unfounded.

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It took us 12 years and immense technical work,” said Federica Mogherini, who coordinated the talks from 2013 to 2015. "Does anyone seriously think this can be done in 21 hours?"

From a European standpoint, the emphasis must remain on the technical intricacies and the need for a comprehensive, verifiable agreement. The risk of a 'bad initial agreement' is a significant concern, especially when dealing with a nation like Iran, where every clause can open the door to further disputes. The urgency to reach a deal, while understandable in the current geopolitical climate, must not overshadow the necessity of a robust and lasting resolution to the nuclear program concerns.

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The Americans think you agree on three or four points in a five‑page document and that's it, but on the nuclear file, every clause opens the door to a dozen more disputes," a second European diplomat said.