An unusually rainy spring, a drier monsoon ahead: What’s happening to Nepal’s weather?

Nepal has experienced an unusually active pre-monsoon season, marked by frequent rainfall, thunderstorms, and cloudy skies, a significant departure from the typically dry conditions expected between March and May. Climate experts point to a combination of local atmospheric conditions and global climate systems as drivers of this pattern.

These irregularities are largely influenced by wide-reaching climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate conditions are currently trending towards El Niño, a phenomenon where weakening trade winds allow warm water to accumulate in the Pacific, impacting global weather. This increased rain has brought some benefits, like reduced air pollution and improved groundwater recharge, but has also heightened risks of lightning, hailstorms, landslides, and flash floods.

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However, this year, many areas have had rainfall and thunderstorms nearly every day.

Paradoxically, while the pre-monsoon period has seen increased rainfall, the upcoming monsoon season (June to September) is forecast to be unusually dry. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology predicts below-average rainfall in many areas, with western river basins like Karnali, Bheri, and Mahakali being particularly vulnerable to drought stress during El Niño years. Residents in western Nepal have already observed drastic shifts in rainfall patterns, experiencing either insufficient rain or short, intense downpours that increase the risk of both drought and flash floods.

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There is likely to be rainfall for a short time and then no rainfall for a long time.