Analysis points to US advantage in Strait of Hormuz

Analysis of maritime traffic data indicates that the United States has established a clearer strategic advantage over Iran in the critical Strait of Hormuz. Over the past two weeks, more than 80 percent of vessels navigating the waterway have chosen a new route along the coast of Oman, according to data from the analysis firm Kpler, which monitors maritime traffic via transponders and satellite data.

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Over 80 percent of the ships in the Strait of Hormuz have chosen the route along Oman's coast in the past two weeks.

Both Iran and the US have claimed control over the strait, a vital artery for global oil trade. Iran has targeted numerous vessels attempting to use the route along Oman's northern coast, insisting that ships must use the traditional passage through the strait to allow Iran to levy tolls. This demand is strongly opposed by countries in the region, as ships using the Omani route effectively bypass Iranian tolls.

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Iran has attacked a dozen ships seeking a route along the northern coast of Oman.

To avoid Iranian attacks, vessels are increasingly turning off their transponders, sometimes for weeks, while transiting the new route under the protection of the substantial US naval presence in the region. This strategy appears to be succeeding, with oil and gas tankers frequently sighted near Oman's coast, many with their transponders deactivated.

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It feels more like their (Iran's) goal is deterrence, to confirm that they have control in that way. But they are still using deterrence.

Despite these developments, neither Iran nor the US has complete control over the strait. Iran continues its attacks, demonstrating that the US does not have full command. Analysts suggest Iran's actions are primarily aimed at deterrence, reinforcing its perceived control. Meanwhile, intensive talks are underway between Iran and Oman regarding maritime passage through the strait, with the US excluded from these discussions. This exclusion has drawn sharp criticism from US President Donald Trump, who threatened Oman, prompting former National Security Advisor John Bolton to call Trump's remarks a sign of his confusion in the ongoing conflict.

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If Oman stands in the way, we will bomb the shit out of them.