Analyst: Putin's success narrative false, Ukraine has momentum

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to assert that his forces are advancing along the entire front line in Ukraine. However, military analyst Jörgen Elfving disputes this, stating that "On the whole, the impression is rather that Ukraine has the wind in its sails."

“

On the whole, the impression is rather that Ukraine has the wind in its sails.

Data from the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russia lost more territory than it gained for the second consecutive month in May. The Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported on Wednesday that Ukraine has recaptured 600 square kilometers of territory from Russian forces in 2026.

Elfving, a former lieutenant colonel in the Swedish Armed Forces, suggests that Putin may be receiving inaccurate information from his general staff and military. "Putin lives in his own bubble. He is lulled into a perception of reality that is not entirely correct," Elfving explained. He characterized the battlefield situation as more nuanced, with Russia making local gains while Ukraine maintains key defensive lines and strikes targets in Crimea and within Russia.

“

The Russian advance speed is not impressive.

Russia's military operations have reportedly been impacted by the loss of access to the Starlink satellite system and restrictions on the Telegram platform. Meanwhile, Putin has demanded all of Donbas, including areas not under Russian control, as part of a peace settlement. Recent reports suggest it could take Russia 30 months at its current pace to fully control Donbas.

“

Putin lives in his own bubble. He is lulled into a perception of reality that is not entirely correct.

Despite these broader trends, Russia has made some advances. The city of Kostiantynivka, a crucial hub in the Donetsk region, has been a primary target for Moscow. Meduza, an independent Russian media outlet, reports that Ukrainian defenses there have weakened, with Russian forces advancing from two directions. Elfving noted that Russian units have entered the city, using a tactic of infiltration with smaller units to gain territory before reinforcements arrive. He questioned whether Ukraine can expel them or hold the remaining parts of the city long-term.

“

The Russian units have de facto entered the city. From the Russian side, they are using an infiltration tactic with smaller forces that take terrain and then await reinforcements.