Analyst: West prepares for Russia's defeat, discusses five future scenarios

Analyst Tonči Tadić believes it is increasingly evident that Russia will be defeated in its war against Ukraine, prompting Western experts to intensify discussions about the country's post-war future. Tadić referenced an essay by historian Stephen Kotkin, titled "Five Futures of Russia and How America Can Prepare for What Comes Next," which outlines several possible trajectories for the Russian Federation.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia will be defeated in its war against Ukraine. Therefore, more and more experts in the West are preparing for Russia's future after defeat in this war," Tadić wrote on Facebook. He noted Kotkin's view that neither Washington nor its allies can fundamentally alter Russia's internal identity. Consequently, Western nations should adopt a pragmatic policy combining strong defense with a clear distinction between the Russian regime and its people.

Tadić highlighted five potential scenarios for Russia's development. The most desirable, yet least likely, scenario envisions Russia transforming into a stable, bureaucratic state akin to 19th-century France, maintaining national pride without aggressive imperialism. A second, considered highly probable by Kotkin, involves continued isolation and militarization, relying heavily on the state's repressive apparatus.

A third possibility is Russia gradually becoming a vassal state of China, heavily dependent on Beijing economically and strategically due to prolonged Western isolation. The fourth scenario likens Russia to North Korea, relying on nuclear deterrence, isolation, and unpredictable international behavior for regime survival. The bleakest scenario predicts internal chaos, institutional collapse, or even civil war, raising concerns about the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal and posing a significant threat to global security.

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It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia will be defeated in its war against Ukraine. Therefore, more and more experts in the West are preparing for Russia's future after defeat in this war.