Ancient cultures collapsed due to severe drought, new study finds

A severe drought, intensified by a confluence of climate processes, led to the collapse of major Bronze Age civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean around 3,200 years ago. A new study from Stockholm University in Sweden has identified that gradual drying over thousands of years, partly due to changes in Earth's orbit affecting rainfall and monsoon patterns, culminated in catastrophic water shortages.

These climatic shifts weakened the African monsoon, which previously supplied rain to the region, and natural climate cycles amplified each other, creating a perfect storm for water scarcity. The study utilized climate models to reconstruct the Mediterranean climate from 8,000 years ago, offering insights into the region's vulnerability.

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Our results give us an idea of how vulnerable the Mediterranean region is to drought, and how drought can lead societies into a situation where they have difficulty surviving.

"Our results give us an idea of how vulnerable the Mediterranean region is to drought, and how drought can lead societies into a situation where they have difficulty surviving," said Katherine Power, the study's lead author and a doctoral student at Stockholm University. She noted that while the specific orbital and monsoon changes of the past are unlikely to repeat, the region's susceptibility to drought remains.

Power cautioned that current drying trends are accelerated by human-induced climate change, making future droughts potentially more severe and rapid than those experienced in antiquity. While natural climate variations can still cause short-term droughts, the long-term, gradual desiccation of the Bronze Age is no longer the primary driver. The findings were published in the journal Science Advances.

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Natural climate variation as driving short-term droughts can still occur.