Anthropic IPO Valuation Hinges on $200 Billion 2028 Revenue Forecast, Sources Say

As artificial intelligence company Anthropic gears up for a potentially massive Initial Public Offering, its valuation is being pegged to ambitious future revenue forecasts. Sources familiar with the company's financials indicate Anthropic projects $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue for 2028. This figure dramatically surpasses the $47 billion revenue "run rate" the company publicized as recently as May, signaling the immense growth investors are expected to underwrite.

Investment bankers and analysts are employing enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forward-looking projections. While this method is standard for rapidly expanding software firms that have not yet achieved mature profitability, forecasting revenue two years out is an unusual step. It underscores the swift pace of Anthropic's business expansion and the inherent difficulties in setting benchmarks for a company still investing heavily in AI infrastructure, computing power, and talent.

The high cost of AI development has recently impacted the stock performance of several prominent tech companies. However, precedents exist for companies with rapid growth trajectories. Backers of Cerebras Systems, for instance, cited 2028 revenue expectations prior to its IPO this year. Similarly, SpaceX's projections extended to 2029 before its public debut at a record valuation in June.

This valuation strategy reflects the challenges in assessing AI firms whose profit margins are currently squeezed by substantial expenditures on computing resources and model training. The underlying bet is that Anthropic's revenue growth will outpace its operational costs, leading to expanding margins over time. Companies like Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX are being considered as comparables for Anthropic's valuation as it prepares for its analyst day.