Are French companies truly threatened by violent Russian actions, as the head of intelligence claims?

France's top domestic intelligence official has issued a stark warning to business leaders, urging them to prepare for an "aggravation of threats" posed by Russia.

Céline Berthon, director general of internal security (DGSI), stated that the discovery of an explosive drone at Leipzig airport serves as a critical signal. She emphasized the need to consider the possibility of "more direct, violent hostile actions" occurring on French soil. Berthon specifically highlighted companies within the defense sector, as well as their entire supply chains, including subcontractors and strategic production areas like energy and communications, as potential targets.

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In the context of a hardening Russian posture, we must integrate the hypothesis of an aggravation of the threats weighing on companies.

This alert aligns with a broader geopolitical context of heightened tensions. The intelligence chief's remarks suggest a shift in Russian tactics, moving beyond conventional military confrontation to potentially include covert or disruptive actions against economic targets in allied nations.

Experts concur with this assessment, noting that states seeking to destabilize adversaries without resorting to open warfare often target critical infrastructure or industries supporting military efforts. Marc Chassillan, an armament engineer and consultant, explained that attacking an enemy's allies' defense industries or strategic infrastructure can be a more effective way to cause disruption than direct military engagement. This strategy aims to inflict economic damage and undermine an adversary's capabilities through indirect means.

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It is better to attack something else like infrastructure, energy, communication, transport or other. And if he wants to escalate with a more assertive strategic signaling, he attacks what is not military but contributes to the military effort of his enemy, the defense industries of his allies.