Are officials exaggerating Hamas threat to impact elections, push for new invasion? - analysis

Officials may be exaggerating the threat posed by Hamas to influence Israel's upcoming October elections and potentially to justify a new invasion of Gaza. This alleged pattern has been observed since mid-2024, following Israel's declaration of dismantling Hamas's battalions.

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Whenever certain officials wanted to reinvade or ramp up attacks on Gaza, they leaked out reports about Hamas rearming and making a major comeback.

Leaked reports in mid-April claimed Hamas had grown to 27,000 armed fighters and was reassembling rockets, a significant increase from pre-October 7 estimates. This emerged as government officials began discussing the need for another invasion of Gaza. The narrative shifted when the Lebanon front intensified, but with a recent ceasefire holding, officials have reportedly returned to the story of Hamas's 27,000 fighters, now adding claims of assembled aerial threats.

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Hamas may have 27,000 Gazans or even more with arms.

However, the claim of 27,000 fighters has been contested. While Hamas might have that many individuals with arms, defense officials stated in January 2025 that the number of organized, experienced battalions was much lower. Some officials then placed the figure closer to 12,000, and crucially, these were not considered the same level of threat as in 2023. Following the permanent ceasefire in October 2025, IDF officials told the Jerusalem Post that only about 7,000 Hamas fighters were active in re-establishing order and control in Gaza, a figure significantly lower than the reported 27,000.

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the number of real fighters ready to engage in combat