Are the Liberals’ final push coming too late?

The Liberals are edging back toward Sweden’s parliamentary threshold in several opinion polls, but more than 1.8 million voters have already cast their ballots early. With less than a week before the election, the question is whether Simona Mohamsson’s final push has arrived too late, or whether the party could still benefit from tactical voting.

The latest encouraging figure comes from Novus, whose poll for TV4 and Göteborgs-Posten gives the Liberals 4.3% support. That puts the party just above the 4% threshold required for seats in the Riksdag.

The result does not establish that the Liberals are safely over the threshold. Given the poll’s margin of error, the party’s position is not statistically certain. What is clearer is that the Liberals have gained ground in recent weeks. Novus says a one-percentage-point increase is statistically reliable, while polls from other institutes also point to an upward trend.

In the latest SvD/Demoskop poll, the Liberals rose from 2.0% to 2.8% compared with the previous week. The gains have created a more hopeful backdrop for a party fighting to remain in parliament, even as the number of early voters limits the time left for its campaign to convert momentum into votes.