Argentina's agricultural export tax revenue to reach $4.6 billion in 2026, slight drop expected

Argentina's tax revenue from agricultural exports is expected to total US$4.613 billion in 2026, a figure the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) notes is "practically unchanged" from the previous year. This projection comes after a significant 51% drop in revenue during the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, a decline attributed to temporary reductions in export duties.

The BCR explained that the projected 2026 revenue is 1% lower than the previous cycle. While this amount falls short of the record highs seen in 2021 and 2022, when international commodity prices surged due to the Russia-Ukraine war, it remains 50% above the low point of 2023, a year marked by a severe drought.

The soybean complex is anticipated to be the largest contributor to this revenue, with an estimated US$3.275 billion in 2026, due to its higher tax rates. Following soybeans, the corn complex is projected to contribute US$754 million, wheat US$324 million, sunflower US$158 million, barley US$79 million, and sorghum US$22 million.

Temporary adjustments to export taxes in 2025 significantly influenced the revenue flow. The BCR highlighted that the first half of 2026 saw US$1.881 billion collected from export duties, the second-lowest figure in six years, surpassed only by 2023's US$1.153 billion. This comparison is heavily influenced by two exceptional schemes in 2025: a temporary reduction in rates from February to June incentivized early sales, boosting 2025's first-half revenue. Additionally, the elimination of export duties in September 2025 allowed for tax-free sales up to a certain quota, which compressed the second-half revenue for 2025 and shifted some volume into early 2026.