Argentina’s Country Risk Falls Below 500 Points to Its Lowest Level in More Than Two Weeks

Argentina’s country-risk measure slipped below 500 points for the first time in more than two weeks as sovereign bonds extended their gains and emerging-market conditions improved.

The JP Morgan index fell six points to 494 basis points, a 1.2% decline, according to Rava screens. It had last closed at a comparable level on Aug. 17, when it stood at 489 points. The indicator has now fallen for three straight sessions and is down 18 points, or 3.5%, in the first three days of September.

The decline followed gains of up to 0.6% in both locally governed bonds and Global bonds, including the AL35D and GD46D. The recent improvement contrasts with the previous month, when the index came under pressure from market expectations about Argentina’s economy and domestic politics ahead of the 2027 presidential election, as well as higher U.S. Treasury yields. Over that period, country risk rose 82 points, or 19.1%, and reached 532 before easing toward 510.

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an international environment favorable to emerging markets

Economist Javier Giordano of CFA said the bond gains came in “an international environment favorable to emerging markets.” The emerging-market bond index EMB rose 0.3%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.76%. Gustavo Ber of Estudio Ber said Argentine bonds had again “looked firmer,” helped by international optimism after Federal Reserve governor Christopher J. Waller suggested U.S. interest rates could remain unchanged in September if inflation continues to slow.

The improvement did not extend across Argentine assets. Argentine ADRs in New York ended a three-session winning streak and mostly fell, led by Cresud, YPF and Transportadora de Gas del Sur. Globant gained 3.8% and Ternium rose 2%. The Merval dropped 1.5% to 3,058,093 points, equivalent to $1,925.15 after adjustment by the contado con liquidación exchange rate.

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looked firmer