Argentina's economy to grow 3% in 2026-2027, boosted by investment and exports, says BBVA

Argentina's economy is poised for a period of consolidation and growth, with projections indicating a 3% expansion in both 2026 and 2027, according to a recent report by BBVA.

The bank's technical team anticipates that the Gross Domestic Product (PBI) will see steady growth, fueled primarily by private investment and the export sector. This positive outlook is underpinned by key factors such as fiscal balance, a gradual deceleration of inflation, the recovery of international reserves, and increased exchange rate stability. BBVA also forecasts a gradual improvement in private consumption as real wages begin to recover.

These projections follow a mixed performance in early 2026. While the national statistics institute (Indec) reported a 2.3% year-on-year GDP increase in the first quarter, driven by agriculture, Vaca Muerta, and mining, a notable decline in investment was observed. Fixed capital formation fell by 11.6% compared to the same period in 2025.

However, the external sector presents a strong counterpoint. From January to May 2026, Argentina accumulated a trade surplus of $11.783 billion, a substantial increase from $1.883 billion in the same period of 2025. This improvement, attributed to more dynamic exports from the energy, agro-industrial, and mining sectors, has led BBVA to raise its trade balance forecast to $22.6 billion for 2026 and $23 billion for 2027. The bank also anticipates significant growth in investment and private consumption in the coming years, alongside increased credit in both pesos and dollars.