Argentina's Milei relies on allies as Macri stays silent and opposition gains ground

Argentina's government is heading into a crucial test in Congress, where its ability to build power and secure support for President Javier Milei's reelection will be on full display. The administration needs to maintain the loyalty of its allies within the Cambiemos spectrum, including the PRO party and moderate centrist factions, to pass key legislation. These include reforms to the Central Bank and fiscal matters, as well as judicial appointments requiring Senate approval.

The opposition Peronist party is expected to withhold quorum in both chambers, placing the onus on the government to rally enough legislators to achieve the numbers needed. This comes at a time when political allegiances appear to be wavering, influenced by poll numbers and growing discontent over the ruling party's confrontational rhetoric. This tension increases the risk of clashes and drives up the price of political adhesions.

Former President Mauricio Macri, a key ally who helped Milei come to power, has adopted a "suggestive silence." While his allies suggest he is fulfilling FIFA commitments abroad, his public distance from the government's current actions is notable. Macri has subtly endorsed Hernán Lacunza, a moderate figure, as a potential presidential candidate, signaling a potential divergence from Milei's more radical approach. Macri reportedly believes the government's trajectory is problematic, creating a dilemma for his PRO party: whether to continue supporting the current administration or explore alternative alliances.