Argentina's 'ni-ni' voters: the silent, disillusioned majority shaping elections

Argentina's political scene is mired in a stalemate, with the current government experiencing a notable decline in public approval. However, the primary opposition, Peronism, struggles to leverage this discontent, leaving society caught between indifference and disillusionment.

The current political dynamic echoes the period before the 2023 elections and Javier Milei's rise. A government faces management fatigue and declining expectations, yet retains electoral competitiveness. Simultaneously, the dominant opposition force cannot capitalize on this deficit to present a winning alternative. A "third option" is also struggling to gain traction, leading to a forced polarization and "default" elections.

Central to this scenario are the "ni-ni" voters, a third of the electorate torn between opposing forces. They are disillusioned with Milei over economic stagnation and repelled by the "old regime" figures, instability fears, and a lack of appealing alternatives. This group feels trapped by these negative impulses.

These "ni-ni" voters not only decide elections but also shape the public agenda and influence leadership. In a country where party loyalties have vanished and ideological identifications have diluted, their preferences are conditional and transactional. This heterogeneous group lacks representation and possesses kaleidoscopic interests and shifting preferences.

Beneath an apparent indifference, this segment is actively evaluating, often surprising leaders, pollsters, and journalists. Like in August 2023, they possess a shared code of confidentiality that allows them to surprise when they express themselves, a pattern that may repeat in October 2025.