Argentine Dollar Faces Upward Pressure Early June, Stability Predicted for Month

Argentina's dollar began June with an upward trend, registering a $30 increase in the first three days of the month. The official retail dollar rate reached 1460 pesos at Banco Nación on Wednesday, a level not seen since February. Despite this initial surge, currency specialists anticipate stability for the remainder of June.

Economist Fernando Marull expects a stable dollar, consistent with recent months, citing the ongoing supply from soybean exports and financial inflows. He noted that the early-month rise was due to a temporary decrease in supply. Analysts generally agree that the dollar will remain stable in June, influenced by the seasonality of agricultural settlements and continued financial flows.

Martín Polo, head of strategy at Cohen Aliados Financieros, concurred, linking the initial dollar increase to higher demand that typically eases. He explained that the exchange rate had previously fallen against accelerating inflation, leading the dollar to seek to regain some ground. Polo highlighted that while the international context poses risks, the first half of the year saw a favorable external environment, with a weaker dollar against the Brazilian real offsetting local currency depreciation.

However, Polo observed a shift in investor sentiment. Previously abundant foreign exchange supply has now transformed into demand, tightening the financial market. Despite this structural change, he expects the dollar to remain calmer in June due to the peak agricultural liquidation season. Cohen Aliados Financieros projects a June increase in line with inflation, around 2%, but warns of a potentially faster depreciation rate in the second half of the year, revising earlier expectations of the year closing at 1400 pesos.