Arriazu projects $20 billion trade surplus and 3.5% growth for Argentina

Economist Ricardo Arriazu, a prominent voice whose views are closely followed by the Argentine government, has revised his economic forecasts upward, projecting a significant trade surplus and robust growth for the country. Arriazu anticipates a $20 billion trade surplus and an average economic growth of 3.5% for the year.

Speaking at the Tax & Legal Leadership Summit 2024 organized by KPMG Argentina, Arriazu presented macroeconomic statistics and outlooks for foreign trade. He believes the projected surplus will be driven by strong export performance in the agro-industrial and energy sectors, providing crucial financial support to the economy. He noted that the trade balance over the last 12 months already exceeds his previous projections.

"I had a surplus for this year of $13.5 billion, which was better than last year. Now I am at $20 billion with a current account surplus," Arriazu stated. He added that the overall growth rate could fluctuate depending on domestic consumption patterns, specifically Argentines' willingness to purchase dollars. "Right now, what is needed is for the real economy to improve. If it improves, Argentina's opportunity is fabulous," he emphasized.

Looking further ahead, Arriazu predicts that Argentina's energy exports alone could exceed $30 billion by 2030. He expressed optimism about the current "aligned planets" creating a "spectacular opportunity" but cautioned that Argentina has a history of squandering such chances. He hopes this time the nation will seize the moment.

During the KPMG summit, government officials also addressed fiscal policy. Claudia Balestrini, Undersecretary of Public Revenue, and Juan José Imirizaldu, National Director of Taxes, confirmed that modifications to the current tax system are under review. They aim to implement a comprehensive tax reform to stimulate economic activity and investment, focusing on reducing the tax burden and eliminating distortive taxes rather than creating exemptions.