As Iran weakens, Gulf states look beyond Hormuz Strait

The Gulf region is abuzz with discussions about the future geopolitical landscape, particularly in the wake of recent US strikes targeting Iran. These strikes, and the broader US-Iran confrontations, have historically led to Iran retaliating against Gulf states, making the current situation a focal point for regional strategists.

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Iran is all talk and no action. They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would ⁠have been great for them, now they will ‌have to pay the price!!!

US President Donald Trump has voiced frustration over the slow pace of negotiations with Iran, warning the country will "pay the price" for delaying a deal. This statement comes after a fragile ceasefire in April failed to halt continuous weekly clashes. Trump's social media posts characterized Iran as "all talk and no action," suggesting that the opportunity for a beneficial deal has passed. The recent US strikes were reportedly stronger than previous actions, following Iran's alleged downing of a US Apache helicopter and an exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran.

Despite projecting an image of confidence, Iran appears unwilling to compromise on key issues during negotiations. Instead, it seems prepared to lash out regionally. However, some analysts perceive Iran's power as less formidable than it projects. Saudi journalist Abdulrahman al-Rashed noted that Iran's primary objective is to preserve its geopolitical gains in the Arab region, questioning its ability to succeed in negotiations after failing militarily. He argues that Iran seeks to maintain control over Iraq and support Hezbollah in Lebanon, while facing potential losses in Yemen and having already lost influence in Syria.

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Today, Iran clings to one thing: preserving some of its geopolitical gains in the Arab region. Will it succeed in negotiations after failing in war?

Al-Rashed draws parallels between Iran's current regional ambitions and the historical attempts by Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser to export "Nasserism" in the 1950s and 1960s. Nasser's influence significantly impacted crises in Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, as well as Syria and Yemen, inspiring revolutions and coups. This comparison suggests that Iran's current strategy, focused on maintaining its sphere of influence through proxies and regional maneuvering, may face similar limitations and eventual decline as past hegemonic aspirations.

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It seeks to control Iraq and preserve Hezbollah in Lebanon, having lost Syria and being on the verge of losing the Houthis in Yemen. It hopes that negotiations with the US administration will help preserve its extensive realm as much as possible.