Assad Loyalists, Syrian Hezbollah Members Eye Return as Lebanon Grows Unsafe

Syrians associated with Hezbollah in Lebanon are increasingly anxious about their future, fearing they could become bargaining chips as political and battlefield developments signal a potential rapprochement between Damascus and Beirut. Former officers from the Bashar Assad era and Syrian Hezbollah members who fled to Lebanon after the Syrian regime's fall are now exploring options for safer, more stable environments, with a return to Syria emerging as a "viable choice" for some.

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We go to sleep hearing talk of a Syrian military intervention and wake up to the possibility of rapprochement between (Hezbollah) and the Syrian state. Either way, we lose.

Hadi, a former Hezbollah security operative from northern Homs, expressed the prevailing anxiety: "We go to sleep hearing talk of a Syrian military intervention and wake up to the possibility of rapprochement between (Hezbollah) and the Syrian state. Either way, we lose." This sentiment captures the fear that warmer rhetoric between Damascus and Beirut, coupled with uncertainty surrounding Syria's new authorities and Hezbollah's leadership, could lead to Hezbollah withdrawing its protection and restricting their activities.

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Most Syrians can feel the hostile tone toward the new Syrian state easing.

Many Syrians under Hezbollah's protection, particularly the most vulnerable, worry about being "handed over to the Lebanese state" due to their illegal status, which could result in deportation and prosecution in Syria. As support wanes and living conditions deteriorate, these individuals are actively seeking secure pathways back to Syria or considering refuge elsewhere. Hadi noted a perceived easing of hostility towards the Syrian state, suggesting that past red lines regarding positions on the "Jolani government" are now being normalized as long as they do not affect the sect.

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the Syrian leadership’s decision not to join a pincer movement with Israel by intervening militarily in Lebanon.

Abdel Razzaq, who served in Hezbollah's security division near Damascus, has already sent his family back to Syria and remains in Lebanon, awaiting a decision on whether to follow them or relocate to another country. He believes that regardless of future political agreements or potential Syrian military intervention in Lebanon, individuals like him will be scapegoats. He stated, "Many people have completed settlement procedures and returned to normal life," indicating that for those with clear records, returning to Syria might be preferable to living in poverty and constant fear in Lebanon.

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Whether there is an agreement, or war and Syrian forces enter Lebanon as people keep saying, we will be the scapegoats.