At Beaufort, Israel confronts the futility of withdrawal - analysis

The sight of Israeli flags atop Beaufort Castle, a site of past battles and a symbol of Israel's long presence in Lebanon, now evokes a different kind of futility for many Israelis. It's not the futility of staying, but the futility of believing that withdrawal would bring peace, a lesson reinforced by recent events.

This sentiment is echoed in the current situation in Gaza, where Israel's control has expanded since its 2005 withdrawal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated this control could increase further. For many Israelis, the return to Beaufort and the ongoing situation in Gaza underscore a harsh reality learned over the past quarter-century: giving up territory has not yielded peace or security.

Opponents of Israel's past presence in Lebanon often pointed to Beaufort as evidence of the futility of holding territory, arguing that 18 years in southern Lebanon resulted in a grinding war of attrition, not peace. However, the subsequent withdrawals from Beaufort, Lebanon, and Gaza did not bring the expected peace. Instead, many Israelis now feel these withdrawals have brought threats closer to their doorstep.

The logic behind these withdrawals, reducing friction, lowering casualties, and creating space for diplomacy, has been upended for many Israelis by events of the last two decades. The October 7th attack and ongoing threats from Lebanon have led to a reassessment of strategic concepts, questioning whether deterrence, international guarantees, or relying on local armies could ever be sufficient.