Athens prepares four crisis scenarios for tensions with Ankara

Athens has begun working through four possible crisis scenarios as tensions with Ankara again rise in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean. Greek media reports say the plans respond to renewed disputes over maritime zones, the demilitarization of islands, and so-called gray zones in the Aegean.

The first scenario would revive the 2020 Oruç Reis crisis. Greece is considering the possibility that Turkey could send a research vessel into an area in the Aegean or eastern Mediterranean that Athens regards as disputed. The Oruç Reis operated at the time south of Kastellorizo and east of Rhodes and Karpathos.

A second source of tension could emerge if Turkish fishing boats operate in areas that Greece claims as its exclusive economic zone, particularly in the Aegean. A third scenario involves Turkish drones continuing to fly in areas that Greece claims as its airspace. Athens could issue an explicit warning and potentially consider shooting down a drone, a move that the report says could trigger a rapid escalation if Ankara responded.

The longer-term scenario concerns the delivery in 2027 of Israel’s “Achilles’ Shield” air-defense system to Greece. The system could cause concern in Ankara and deepen tensions, although the report describes this possibility as more remote than the others.

Athens is also reportedly weighing a move to extend its territorial waters south of Crete to 12 nautical miles if tensions intensify. A diplomatic note sent by Greece’s Foreign Ministry to Ankara last week reportedly referred explicitly, for the first time, to Greece’s right to reserve that option. Despite the scenarios, communication channels remain open. The report cites a meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, during Kalin’s visit to Athens.