Atiku's subsidy proposal sparks pro-poor debate ahead of Nigeria's 2027 election

A proposal by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to reinstate a targeted petrol subsidy has ignited a fierce debate ahead of Nigeria's 2027 presidential election. Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, argues that his plan aims to lower energy costs and alleviate the financial strain on Nigerians caused by high fuel prices.

Abubakar's administration, if elected, would restore a form of petrol subsidy. He clarified that this is not a return to the previous, allegedly corrupt, and open-ended subsidy system. Instead, his proposal involves a targeted, capped, budgeted, and independently audited production-support mechanism linked to domestic refining. This stance directly challenges President Bola Tinubu's administration, which removed the subsidy without what Abubakar's team calls adequate safeguards for citizens.

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You removed subsidy, retained the racket, handed Nigerians the bill.

Presidential spokesperson Phrank Shaibu accused the Tinubu administration of removing the subsidy while failing to provide sufficient transparency regarding the generated savings. He argued that the administration "removed subsidy, retained the racket, and handed Nigerians the bill." This criticism highlights a central tension in the debate: the management and utilization of funds saved from the subsidy removal.

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Atiku has changed the trajectory of the campaign. He has put the APC on the defensive. Even if he is lying, he has hit the APC hard. He has now successfully gained the attention of the poor.

Economists and energy experts, while rejecting a return to the old subsidy structure due to its fiscal unsustainability and tendency to foster corruption and neglect of domestic refineries, echoed the call for transparency. They urged the federal government to ensure that the savings are demonstrably channeled into critical sectors such as healthcare, education, electricity, roads, public transportation, social protection, and the revitalization of domestic refining capacity.

Political analyst Dattijo Kabir Muh’d commented on Facebook that Abubakar's proposal has shifted the campaign's focus, putting the ruling APC on the defensive. He suggested that even if Abubakar's claims are exaggerated, the proposal has effectively captured the attention of the poor, who are directly impacted by the subsidy removal. Muh’d emphasized that the APC must demonstrate tangible changes for the poor, beyond mere verbal defenses, to convince voters.

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With the effects of subsidy removal, the APC needs more than oral defence. They must ensure that the poor start to see real changes before the elections. If nothing changes, the poor will never be convinced by oral defence.