August inflation could approach the lowest level of the Milei era

Argentina’s August inflation figure could come close to the lowest monthly reading of Javier Milei’s presidency. The national statistics agency Indec is due to publish the data on Thursday at 4 p.m.

Private consultancies estimate that consumer prices rose between 1.4% and 1.9% during the month. Fundación Libertad y Progreso offered the lowest forecast, at 1.4%, followed by EcoGo at 1.5%, C&T Asesores Económicos at 1.6%, Analytica at 1.7% and Invecq at 1.9%. Orlando Ferreres also estimated 1.6%, while putting core inflation at 0.7%.

All the forecasts place August inflation below 2%, after July’s 2.1% reading interrupted three consecutive months of slowing price increases. The lowest rate under the current government was 1.5% in May 2025, followed by 1.9% in June. A 1.4% result would establish a new low, while a figure between 1.6% and 1.9% would rank second.

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The lower pace of increase was explained by the decline in seasonal components such as tourism and clothing.

Analysts cited several reasons for the expected moderation. The relative stability of the dollar reduced pressure on prices, while meat prices rose less sharply than in previous months. Fuel prices also showed limited movement amid YPF’s price freeze, and seasonal pressures linked to winter-holiday tourism eased.

The Buenos Aires city inflation index, due Tuesday, will provide an early indicator but cannot be extrapolated to the entire country. The Central Bank’s monthly market expectations survey put the median August forecast at 1.7%. C&T said food and beverages rose 1.7%, housing remained near 2.5%, and health increased 2%. It identified household equipment and maintenance as the month’s fastest-rising category, driven by domestic-service wage adjustments and cleaning products.

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August was a month of low inflation, with the reversal of seasonal price increases.