Australia has been dragged into a US-China cage fight over AI

Australia finds itself in a precarious position, caught within the escalating AI competition between the United States and China. The nation is not merely an observer but is actively involved in a high-stakes "cage fight," where the potential for disruption is immense.

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When it comes to AI, Australia is a spectator at a UFC cage fight between the United States and China, except the spectators at this event are all inside the cage with the combatants, not safely in the stands.

China is aggressively pushing low-cost, capable AI models to challenge the dominance of American companies. Meanwhile, the U.S. is racing to develop more advanced, albeit potentially more dangerous, AI technologies. This dynamic creates a challenging environment for other nations like Australia, which must find ways to protect themselves from the fallout while ensuring they do not fall behind.

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Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.

The establishment of Australia's AI Safety Institute, led by expert Kate Controy, signifies a governmental effort to address these complex issues. However, the global AI landscape is increasingly defined by private corporations driven by profit motives. Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, whose leaders have signed statements on AI extinction risk, are simultaneously at the forefront of developing these powerful technologies, creating a tension between stated concerns and commercial imperatives.

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most countries, including many advanced economies, lack the technical expertise to assess the most capable 'frontier' models or to participate meaningfully in their governance.

The United Nations has highlighted the fragmented and often ineffective governance of AI, noting that many nations, including advanced economies, lack the technical expertise to assess or meaningfully participate in the governance of cutting-edge AI models. This leaves countries dependent on systems they cannot fully control or adapt to their specific contexts, underscoring Australia's position as a participant within the cage, rather than a detached observer.

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most member states [are] dependent on systems they cannot build, inspect, audit or fully adapt to local context.