Australians Value China Ties Over US as Trump Confidence Slumps

Australians increasingly prioritize their relationship with China over the United States, with a majority now viewing ties with Beijing as more crucial, according to a new poll by the Lowy Institute. This sentiment shift coincides with a record slump in confidence regarding US President Donald Trump's global leadership.

The 2026 Lowy Institute survey indicates that 51% of Australians now see the relationship with China as more important than that with the US, an eight-point increase from the previous year. This marks the first time in the poll's history that China has surpassed the US in perceived importance. While nearly three-quarters of Australians still consider the US alliance vital for national security, support has seen a notable decline, dropping seven points from 2025 and ten points from 2024.

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Australians are wary of Donald Trump’s America. Less than a third of Australians trust Washington to act responsibly in the world, and confidence in President Trump to do the right thing in world affairs has fallen again since last year’s poll.

Confidence in Donald Trump's ability to act responsibly on the world stage has fallen sharply, with less than a third of Australians expressing trust in Washington. This diminished trust comes amid broader anxieties, as a majority of respondents reported feeling "unsafe" or "very unsafe." The poll also noted a significant drop in support for cultural diversity, with a slim majority suggesting immigration levels are still too high.

Despite the waning confidence in the US alliance, support for the AUKUS defense pact, an agreement with the US and UK for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, remains strong at 68%. The findings reflect a complex geopolitical landscape where Australia navigates its economic dependence on China while maintaining security ties with the US, amid growing global instability and domestic concerns about the economy and immigration.

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The largest single movement on any societal question in the poll’s 22-year history is on cultural diversity. The proportion of Australians who say that cultural diversity has been good for the country has fallen 17 points over the past two years – a shift without precedent in our polling.