Aviation Faces Hotter, Stormier Skies, and Passengers May Have to Accept More Disruption

A summer travel day at London’s Heathrow and Gatwick airports descended into chaos when thunderstorms gathered over southern England and northern Europe. Air traffic controllers struggled to route aircraft around the storms, leaving many planes on the ground. About 900 flights to and from the two airports were delayed, some by as much as 11 hours, while dozens more were cancelled.

Passengers travelling to London from airports across Europe also faced long waits and uncertainty. The weather later cooled, but people in the aviation industry say the disruption should not be dismissed as an unlucky one-off. They fear that climate change will bring more unstable weather systems, increasing disruption and costs for airlines, airports and travellers.

The United Kingdom and northern Europe are especially exposed because their skies are already crowded. Tim Atkinson, an airline risk consultant and former pilot, says storms could potentially affect all of London’s airports at once. “What we’re seeing now is very rapid climate change,” he said. “We’re going from the kind of weather activity which takes out an airport, and which the system kind of copes with… to a situation where, with very little predictability, it would be possible to lose all of the London airports from real-time operation quite swiftly and with little notice.”

At the National Air Traffic Services control centre in Swanwick, Hampshire, thunderstorms are a major concern. Controllers in Terminal Control, which handles flights to and from London and southern England, continually track storm cells on radar while scrutinising weather forecasts. On the day of the visit, the surrounding area was hot and humid, with dark clouds and heavy thundery rain.

Atkinson said a simultaneous loss of London’s airports could make the June disruption appear minor and might even put lives at risk. The article asks how likely such a scenario is as aviation faces increasingly intense weather activity.

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What we’re seeing now is very rapid climate change. We’re going from the kind of weather activity which takes out an airport, and which the system kind of copes with… to a situation where, with very little predictability, it would be possible to lose all of the London airports from real-time operation quite swiftly and with little notice.