Axpo fears sharp decline in Swiss hydropower production due to environmental rules

The Swiss energy company Axpo forecasts a substantial decrease in hydropower production, directly challenging more optimistic projections from research institutions. The core of the issue lies in upcoming environmental regulations that mandate power plants to leave more water in rivers and streams to protect aquatic ecosystems.

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How much water can power plants use for electricity production? And how much must they leave in rivers and streams to protect the survival of fish and other water-dependent species?

Recent studies, including one from the Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape (WSL), suggested that the impact of these "residual water" requirements would be minimal, estimating a loss of only about 2 percent of total production by 2050. Environmental groups welcomed these findings, stating that energy security and environmental protection could go hand-in-hand.

However, Axpo, Switzerland's largest hydropower operator, commissioned its own investigation. This study presents a starkly different outlook, predicting a minimum annual production loss of 1470 gigawatt-hours, nearly 4 percent of the targeted output by 2050. This figure rises to 1890 gigawatt-hours (almost 5 percent) if stricter water depth requirements for fish are imposed.

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The loss is hardly significant.

The discrepancy arises from Axpo's focus on "concession renewals." Over 140 hydropower concessions are due for renewal by 2050, and these will be subject to the current, more stringent environmental laws, not the older ones under which they were initially granted. Axpo argues that these renewals, combined with stricter ecological mandates, will significantly curtail electricity generation, contradicting the more favorable outlook presented by WSL and embraced by environmental organizations.

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The implementation of these tightened legal norms is likely to lead to a minimum annual production loss of 1470 gigawatt-hours.