Ballon d'Or 2026: Favorites and betting predictions

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is set for October 26 at The London Palladium, marking the culmination of the 2025-2026 football season, which concluded with the World Cup final on July 19. This year's award lacks a standout favorite, with a lengthy list of candidates vying for the prestigious honor based on their performances between July 2025 and the World Cup final.

According to betting odds, Harry Kane of Bayern Munich is the current frontrunner. He enjoyed a stellar season, winning the Bundesliga and leading the scoring charts with 36 goals in 31 matches. He also performed well for England, though both Bayern and the Three Lions were eliminated in the Champions League and World Cup semifinals, respectively.

Following Kane, Lamine Yamal is considered a strong contender. He was a key player in Spain's World Cup victory and a determinant factor in Barcelona's La Liga title win, although they were eliminated in the Champions League quarterfinals. Kylian Mbappé is also in the running, having had a solid World Cup with France, where he was the top scorer and won the Golden Boot, despite a more modest season with Real Madrid.

Other notable candidates include Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, instrumental in PSG's consecutive Champions League triumphs, and Rodri, who was named the best player of the World Cup and won it with Spain, though his club form with Manchester City was not as dominant. Lionel Messi, despite not being a top favorite in the odds, is still in contention due to his strong World Cup performance at 39 years old and his continued impact with Inter Miami. As the record eight-time winner, Messi remains a significant figure in the race.