Baltic defenses ready for war Russia won't fight

The Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, along with Finland and Sweden, are transforming Northern European security by adopting a common regional strategy. Driven by an "imminent danger" perception amplified by the war in Ukraine, they are launching exercises simulating potential Russian invasion scenarios. Discussions focus on the Suwalki Corridor and Gotland Island's naval importance, with physical preparations like dragon’s teeth and barbed wire along borders.

Estonia is at the forefront, increasing defense spending to 3.5% of its GDP. Lithuania has reintroduced mandatory military service, and Latvia is expanding its reserve forces. At the alliance level, a German-Dutch rapid deployment corps of over 60,000 troops is planned. These measures, while robust on paper, are designed to hold off an enemy until NATO forces arrive, making any occupation prohibitively costly.

However, the article argues that the Baltic states are preparing for hypothetical scenarios rather than addressing current threats. It highlights recent incidents like a drone crash in Latvia, potentially caused by Russian electronic jammers, and Russia's removal of Estonian maritime buoys. These "gray zone" tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting Russian-speaking minorities, aim to test NATO's response times and undermine internal stability. The author suggests that without solutions to these immediate risks, Russia may continue to probe Baltic and Eastern European borders.