Banditry, farmer-herder clashes worsening poverty in North — Study

Violent conflicts across northern Nigeria are deepening poverty and undermining households' ability to withstand economic shocks, a new report reveals. The study, titled “Insecurity, Livelihoods and Welfare in Northern Nigeria,” identifies three primary security threats plaguing the region: the Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency in the Northeast, farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central, and widespread banditry and kidnapping in the Northwest.

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Households in the North-East affected by Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks recorded between eight and 14 per cent lower expenditure per adult equivalent when violent incidents occurred within two years before the survey.

The findings, presented at a webinar in Abuja, showed a direct correlation between conflict and household welfare. Households in the Northeast impacted by Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks recorded expenditure reductions of 8% to 14% when violent incidents occurred within two years of the survey. Conflict-related debt since 2009 further contributed to an additional expenditure loss of 8% to 13%. Farmer-herder clashes proved particularly devastating in the North-Central zone, causing a 14% drop in expenditure for near-poor households, the most significant welfare impact documented.

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Conflict-related debt accumulated since 2009 was also associated with an additional expenditure loss of between eight and 13 per cent.

In the Northwest, banditry and kidnapping were linked to expenditure losses ranging from 4% to 11%, disproportionately affecting moderately poor households. The report, which utilized data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2022/23, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2024, and conflict event data, underscores the severe economic consequences of insecurity.

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Farmer-herder clashes had the most severe impact on near-poor households in the North-Central zone, resulting in a 14 per cent drop in expenditure at the 60th percentile, the largest single welfare effect recorded in the study.

Despite these challenges, the report highlights livelihood diversification as the most effective strategy for building resilience and escaping chronic poverty. Combining farming, non-farming, and enterprise-based income generation emerged as a consistent protective factor across all conflict types. However, a significant gap exists, with only 13% of household heads in northern Nigeria currently pursuing diversified income opportunities, indicating a need for greater support and access to these strategies.

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In the North-West, banditry and kidnapping were linked to expenditure losses ranging from four to 11 per cent, particularly among moderately poor households.