DistantNews
Support us
Banxico raises 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5%, cuts 2027 outlook amid T-MEC uncertainty Image: Cuartobscuro
🇲🇽 Mexico /Economy & Trade

Banxico raises 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5%, cuts 2027 outlook amid T-MEC uncertainty

From El Universal · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

News Official statement New plan
  • Banco de México (Banxico) raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% but lowered its 2027 outlook due to T-MEC review uncertainty.
  • The forecast for the current year's economic activity was revised upward from 1.1% to 1.5%, with an expected GDP range of 1% to 2%.
  • Banxico cited stronger-than-expected economic activity in the second quarter as a reason for the 2026 revision, while warning that US trade policy poses risks.

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, has revised its economic growth projections, raising the forecast for 2026 while lowering expectations for 2027. The upward revision for 2026, now at 1.5%, is attributed to stronger-than-anticipated economic activity in the second quarter. This brings the expected GDP variation for the year within a range of 1% to 2%.

However, the outlook for 2027 has been tempered, with Banxico now anticipating 2% growth, down from a previous estimate of 2.1%. The projected GDP growth range for 2027 is now between 1.2% and 2.8%. This adjustment reflects concerns about potential impacts from the United States' trade policies and the ongoing annual review process under the T-MEC agreement.

Banxico highlighted that the trade policy of the United States, Mexico's primary trading partner, presents significant risks. The central bank warned of a potential intensification of uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly concerning trade. Such factors, along with idiosyncratic elements, could adversely affect external demand and domestic consumption and investment in Mexico.

About this summary

Originally published by El Universal in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

More Stories

From Our Blog