Behind the Firewall, the CDU Is Burning, but Not the AfD

The Christian Democrats’ defeat in Saxony-Anhalt was not merely a bad night for a state branch. It was, in the NZZ’s assessment, a disaster that exposed the depth of distrust facing the entire CDU.

A defeat had been expected. Poll ratings had been poor for months, the party’s lead candidate Sven Schulze had made a pale impression, and AfD rallies led by Ulrich Siegmund had drawn a notably festive atmosphere. But the result on Sunday evening went far beyond those expectations. Voters cut the CDU’s support in half, gave it its worst result in the state’s history and allowed the AfD, a party to its right, to win the election.

The article warns CDU strategists not to seek relief by blaming the local political landscape. The election, it argues, amounted to a vote of no confidence in the party as a whole. Polling cited in the analysis found that 86% of voters who had moved away from the CDU were disappointed with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, saying he had promised too much and delivered too little.

That disappointment was especially damaging because many right-conservative voters had placed high hopes in Merz. He had represented a break with what many considered the leaden Merkel years. He stood for restrictive migration policy, a social policy without experiments and a willingness to address serious mistakes associated with his party, including the nuclear phase-out. Many voters had effectively decided to give the CDU another chance. Even with that advance trust, the party’s result nationally came in just below 30%.

The analysis says voters then received, in substantial respects, a continuation of the Merkel era. Its argument is that the collapse in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be dismissed as a purely regional setback. The result has become a broader warning for the CDU, while the AfD has escaped the same political backlash.