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Belgium braces for autumn shift from heat to heavy rain and storms
🇧🇪 Belgium /Environment & Climate

Belgium braces for autumn shift from heat to heavy rain and storms

From La Libre Belgique · () French

Translated from French, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Belgium faces a potential shift from heat and drought to heavy rain and violent storms this autumn.
  • Meteorologists predict a seasonal temperature anomaly of +1 to +2°C, with November showing a significant signal for above-average precipitation.
  • The warm North Sea could exacerbate autumn rainfall by increasing evaporation, a phenomenon observed in 2023.

Belgium's weather patterns may swing dramatically from prolonged heat and drought to excessive rain and severe thunderstorms this autumn. While September and October are expected to see near-normal precipitation, November is flagged as a potential turning point.

For autumn, therefore September, October and November, the temperature anomaly could be around +1 to +2°C in our regions.

— Pascal MormalA meteorologist at the Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM) explains the seasonal temperature forecast.

Pascal Mormal, a meteorologist at the Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM), explained that the seasonal forecast for September, October, and November indicates a temperature anomaly of around +1 to +2°C. "An anomaly of one degree may seem small to people, but on a seasonal scale, it is a considerable deviation from the norm," he stated.

The outlook for precipitation is more nuanced but concerning. Mormal highlighted that November shows a "more significant signal for above-average precipitation" across the region, including Belgium. This could mark the first month with "really more rain" in some time, though not an "extremely significant excess."

An anomaly of one degree may seem small to people, but on a seasonal scale, it is a considerable deviation from the norm.

— Pascal MormalThe meteorologist emphasizes the significance of the predicted temperature anomaly.

Adding to the potential for heavy rainfall is the unusually warm North Sea. A very hot summer can fuel autumn storms because the sea retains heat, increasing evaporation. "This evaporation can, at times, lead to significant rainfall," Mormal noted, recalling a similar situation in 2023 that contributed to severe flooding in coastal Belgium and northern France.

There, we see that the signal for precipitation above average becomes more important for all of our regions: England, the Benelux, and France.

— Pascal MormalDescribing the precipitation forecast for November.

While the focus is on Belgium, the meteorologist also warned of a heightened risk of "very substantial thunderstorms" around the Mediterranean due to the combination of very warm seas and early cold air intrusions.

For Belgium, it would rather be the scenario of a more humid November that is announced.

— Pascal MormalSpecifying the precipitation outlook for Belgium in November.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by La Libre Belgique in French. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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