Belgium's heatwave peak shifts to weekend, potentially reaching 39C

Belgium is bracing for a severe heatwave, with temperatures projected to hit 39 degrees Celsius by the upcoming weekend. The Belgian meteorological institute (IRM) initially predicted the peak of the heatwave for Wednesday, but recent models indicate a shift, extending the intense heat into the weekend and potentially early next week.

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This is a bit of the worst-case scenario

Meteorologist Pascal Mormal explained the difficulty in forecasting these extreme temperatures, attributing it to a "heat dome" phenomenon. This weather system involves high pressure trapping and compressing air, causing it to heat up and dry out. Mormal likened it to a "lid" or "bell" that prevents hot air from escaping, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of rising temperatures.

"This is a bit of the worst-case scenario," Mormal stated, emphasizing that while dramatization should be avoided, these blocking anticyclonic situations can persist longer than initially anticipated. The longer the heat dome remains in place, the more challenging it becomes to dislodge the system.

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You have a configuration of high pressures that will therefore flatten/compress the air, they will compress it and by compressing it, this air will heat up and also in a way dry out.

Mormal also noted that current models have underestimated the intensity, with forecasts now reaching 39 degrees Celsius for the center of the country on Saturday, a significant increase from earlier predictions. The IRM had previously forecast a peak of 37 degrees Celsius for Wednesday.

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The longer they last, the more complicated it will be to dislodge the system that is in place.